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eco - Wolf Street - 12 hours ago

Bond Market Gets Nervous about Rising Inflation, Ballooning Debt, Sees Rate Hike. Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.46%

10-Year Treasury yield bounced to 4.35% on Friday, after dipping earlier in the week. 30-year Treasury near 5%. Entire Yield Curve above EFFR.

eco - Wolf Street - 1 day ago

This is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen

Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal and state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged.

eco - Wolf Street - 2 days ago

My Take on Auto Sales in March – Come to Think of it, My Take on the Tough and Ugly US Auto Market

GM, Ford, Honda in a quagmire. Tesla now like GM and Ford. Stellantis and Nissan try to exit a death spiral. Toyota gains. Hyundai-Kia rocks from record to record.

eco - Wolf Street - 2 days ago

The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job

The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020.

eco - Wolf Street - 3 days ago

Homes for Sale in California Rose to the 2nd Highest for March in at Least a Decade as Demand Withered: The Biggest Markets

In the San Jose metro (Silicon Valley), active listings hit at least a 10-year record for March. But Orange County lags behind.

eco - Wolf Street - 3 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 4 days ago

Stasis in the US Labor Market: a Peculiar Situation

Total separations drop to the lowest since 2015 beyond the lockdown months.

eco - Wolf Street - 5 days ago

Farm Action’s Letter to Congress, Lambasting the Concentration of Fertilizer Makers and its Impact on Prices

“These structural dynamics allow supply disruptions … to translate into rapid, outsized, and sustained price increases.”

eco - Wolf Street - 5 days ago

Humana, Caught up in the Metastasizing Medicare Overbilling Scandal, Enters Our Imploded Stocks

Government crackdown and legal entanglements take all the fun out of the Medicare Advantage plan bonanza.

eco - Wolf Street - 8 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 8 days ago

Update on the “Lock-in Effect” in the Housing Market: Below-3% and 4% Mortgages Fade Very Slowly

Share of ARMs originations fell further and is at historic lows: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database.

eco - Wolf Street - 9 days ago

US Winemakers and Beer Brewers Face an Existential Crisis: Plunging Alcohol Consumption

Beer brewers have long suffered as Americans switched to wine. But since Covid, even winemakers got hit, and 2025 was really bad.

eco - Wolf Street - 9 days ago

The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market

The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market.

eco - Wolf Street - 10 days ago

Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion

QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates.

eco - Wolf Street - 10 days ago

There Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop

Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen.

eco - Wolf Street - 11 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 12 days ago

Construction of Data Centers, Power Plants, Factories, and Office Buildings: Boom and Bust

Explosive spending on data-centers exceeded plunging spending on office buildings for the first time ever.

eco - Wolf Street - 14 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 15 days ago

Treasury Yields Spike, 10-Year to 4.39%, 30-Year to 4.96%, Mortgage Rates to 6.5%, as the Bond Market Gets Antsy

Bond market frets about inflation, leveraged Treasury bets unwind, housing market frets about spring selling season.

eco - Wolf Street - 15 days ago

Money-Market Funds and CDs: Americans’ Ballooning Piles of Interest-Earning Low-Risk Investments

They’re investment choices, like bond funds, bonds, etc., not that illusory “cash on the sidelines.”

eco - Wolf Street - 16 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 16 days ago

Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down

But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context.

eco - Wolf Street - 17 days ago

Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation and GDP Growth

Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.”

eco - Wolf Street - 17 days ago

Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem

Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods.

eco - Wolf Street - 18 days ago

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops and Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, February 2026

Each city has its own housing market. In some, home prices have dropped a lot; in others, prices have hit new highs.

eco - Wolf Street - 18 days ago

Pending Home Sales Ticked Up from Record Low. But Now Mortgage Rates Spiked Back over 6.3%

Home sales in February, as feeble as they were, benefitted from the lowest mortgage rates in years. Those rates are now gone.

eco - Wolf Street - 19 days ago

Another Mostly Empty Office Tower in San Francisco Sells for 75% Off: Juul’s Abandoned Headquarters

Now there’s a new wave of investor-funded tenants in town that are swimming in cash: AI companies.

eco - Wolf Street - 21 days ago

Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation and Deficit Fears

US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields.

eco - Wolf Street - 22 days ago

What it Takes to Sell Homes in this Market: Lennar Cuts Average Selling Price to 2017 Level

Much lower margins, lower revenues per square foot, and lower construction costs. “We are adapting to market conditions as they are and not waiting for the market to bounce back”: CEO.

eco - Wolf Street - 22 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 23 days ago

Energy Inflation for Americans

Dropping gasoline prices since mid-2022 papered over big price increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s now over.

eco - Wolf Street - 24 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 24 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 25 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 25 days ago

Gasoline Prices Spike, Now up 25% since January, Diesel Prices 40%, Heating up Inflation

California is back over $5. Prices in Texas jumped by 25% month to month, to over $3.23.

eco - Wolf Street - 26 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 27 days ago

Crude Oil WTI Spikes by 28% Overnight to $116, Gasoline Futures +17%. Asian Stocks Plunge, US Stock Futures Deep Red

For the US, the Strait of Hormuz blockage is a Price Shock and inflation problem, not a Supply Shock. For Europe and Asia, it could turn into a Supply Shock if the blockage persists.

eco - Wolf Street - 28 days ago
eco - Wolf Street - 29 days ago

Where Americans Spend their Trillions on Goods and How that Changed since 2015

Big structural changes in spending patterns created winners and losers.

eco - Wolf Street - 29 days ago

Supply of Labor Fell in 2025 on Immigration Crackdown: Massive Change in Labor Market Dynamics that Explains a Lot

The annual adjustments of the labor force to the new population estimates are in, and they’re revealing.

eco - Wolf Street - 30 days ago

Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases

Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note and bond balances on ice, SRF unused.

eco - Wolf Street - 31 days ago

Companies Report Raging Inflation, Except in Wages and Rents

Double-digit increases in employee health insurance costs hold down wage increases.