eco
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Wolf Street
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12
hours ago
Bond Market Gets Nervous about Rising Inflation, Ballooning Debt, Sees Rate Hike. Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.46%
10-Year Treasury yield bounced to 4.35% on Friday, after dipping earlier in the week. 30-year Treasury near 5%. Entire Yield Curve above EFFR.
eco
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Wolf Street
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1
day ago
This is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen
Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal and state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged.
eco
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Wolf Street
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2
days ago
My Take on Auto Sales in March – Come to Think of it, My Take on the Tough and Ugly US Auto Market
GM, Ford, Honda in a quagmire. Tesla now like GM and Ford. Stellantis and Nissan try to exit a death spiral. Toyota gains. Hyundai-Kia rocks from record to record.
eco
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Wolf Street
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2
days ago
The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job
The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020.
eco
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Wolf Street
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3
days ago
Homes for Sale in California Rose to the 2nd Highest for March in at Least a Decade as Demand Withered: The Biggest Markets
In the San Jose metro (Silicon Valley), active listings hit at least a 10-year record for March. But Orange County lags behind.
eco
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Wolf Street
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3
days ago
Retail Sales Plunged in February. But Huge Seasonal Adjustments Caused them to Jump. A Look at Both
But what the heck happened at food and beverage stores?
eco
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Wolf Street
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4
days ago
Stasis in the US Labor Market: a Peculiar Situation
Total separations drop to the lowest since 2015 beyond the lockdown months.
eco
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Wolf Street
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5
days ago
Farm Action’s Letter to Congress, Lambasting the Concentration of Fertilizer Makers and its Impact on Prices
“These structural dynamics allow supply disruptions … to translate into rapid, outsized, and sustained price increases.”
eco
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Wolf Street
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5
days ago
Humana, Caught up in the Metastasizing Medicare Overbilling Scandal, Enters Our Imploded Stocks
Government crackdown and legal entanglements take all the fun out of the Medicare Advantage plan bonanza.
eco
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Wolf Street
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8
days ago
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies and Gold
The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.”
eco
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Wolf Street
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8
days ago
Update on the “Lock-in Effect” in the Housing Market: Below-3% and 4% Mortgages Fade Very Slowly
Share of ARMs originations fell further and is at historic lows: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database.
eco
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Wolf Street
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9
days ago
US Winemakers and Beer Brewers Face an Existential Crisis: Plunging Alcohol Consumption
Beer brewers have long suffered as Americans switched to wine. But since Covid, even winemakers got hit, and 2025 was really bad.
eco
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Wolf Street
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9
days ago
The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market
The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market.
eco
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Wolf Street
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10
days ago
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion
QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates.
eco
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Wolf Street
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10
days ago
There Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop
Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen.
eco
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Wolf Street
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11
days ago
$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War
When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train.
eco
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Wolf Street
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12
days ago
Construction of Data Centers, Power Plants, Factories, and Office Buildings: Boom and Bust
Explosive spending on data-centers exceeded plunging spending on office buildings for the first time ever.
eco
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Wolf Street
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14
days ago
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On
Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front and center.
eco
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Wolf Street
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15
days ago
Treasury Yields Spike, 10-Year to 4.39%, 30-Year to 4.96%, Mortgage Rates to 6.5%, as the Bond Market Gets Antsy
Bond market frets about inflation, leveraged Treasury bets unwind, housing market frets about spring selling season.
eco
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Wolf Street
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15
days ago
Money-Market Funds and CDs: Americans’ Ballooning Piles of Interest-Earning Low-Risk Investments
They’re investment choices, like bond funds, bonds, etc., not that illusory “cash on the sidelines.”
eco
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Wolf Street
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16
days ago
Prices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009
Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come.
eco
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Wolf Street
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16
days ago
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down
But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context.
eco
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Wolf Street
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17
days ago
Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation and GDP Growth
Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.”
eco
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Wolf Street
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17
days ago
Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem
Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods.
eco
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Wolf Street
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18
days ago
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops and Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, February 2026
Each city has its own housing market. In some, home prices have dropped a lot; in others, prices have hit new highs.
eco
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Wolf Street
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18
days ago
Pending Home Sales Ticked Up from Record Low. But Now Mortgage Rates Spiked Back over 6.3%
Home sales in February, as feeble as they were, benefitted from the lowest mortgage rates in years. Those rates are now gone.
eco
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Wolf Street
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19
days ago
Another Mostly Empty Office Tower in San Francisco Sells for 75% Off: Juul’s Abandoned Headquarters
Now there’s a new wave of investor-funded tenants in town that are swimming in cash: AI companies.
eco
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Wolf Street
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21
days ago
Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation and Deficit Fears
US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields.
eco
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Wolf Street
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22
days ago
What it Takes to Sell Homes in this Market: Lennar Cuts Average Selling Price to 2017 Level
Much lower margins, lower revenues per square foot, and lower construction costs. “We are adapting to market conditions as they are and not waiting for the market to bounce back”: CEO.
eco
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Wolf Street
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22
days ago
Core PCE Inflation Hits 3.1%, Worst in 2 Years, in Unique Twist Blows way past CPI Inflation. Driven by Core Services
Energy spike is still to come. The Fed needs to pay attention.
eco
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Wolf Street
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23
days ago
Energy Inflation for Americans
Dropping gasoline prices since mid-2022 papered over big price increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s now over.
eco
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Wolf Street
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24
days ago
Food Inflation in America
Not good.
eco
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Wolf Street
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24
days ago
CPI Inflation Rose on Food and Energy Prices, even before Gasoline Price Spike. YoY still Pushed Down by Bad-Joke OER
The Bad-Joke of Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER) explained.
eco
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Wolf Street
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25
days ago
Supply of Single-Family Homes Surges to Highest for February in 9 Years, Demand Stuck in the Deepfreeze
Condo sales plunged to a record low shared with two other months.
eco
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Wolf Street
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25
days ago
Gasoline Prices Spike, Now up 25% since January, Diesel Prices 40%, Heating up Inflation
California is back over $5. Prices in Texas jumped by 25% month to month, to over $3.23.
eco
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Wolf Street
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26
days ago
Crude Oil WTI Plunged by 24%, Back Below $88, from $116 Overnight. Gasoline Futures -16%. Manic Speculation Unwinds
The Futures Market is where the Imbeciles go nuts.
eco
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Wolf Street
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27
days ago
Crude Oil WTI Spikes by 28% Overnight to $116, Gasoline Futures +17%. Asian Stocks Plunge, US Stock Futures Deep Red
For the US, the Strait of Hormuz blockage is a Price Shock and inflation problem, not a Supply Shock. For Europe and Asia, it could turn into a Supply Shock if the blockage persists.
eco
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Wolf Street
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28
days ago
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields Jump, Yield Curve Steepens, Mortgage Rates Jump too, as Inflation Fears Move to the Top
The bond market flipped from haven trade to inflation trade.
eco
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Wolf Street
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29
days ago
Where Americans Spend their Trillions on Goods and How that Changed since 2015
Big structural changes in spending patterns created winners and losers.
eco
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Wolf Street
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29
days ago
Supply of Labor Fell in 2025 on Immigration Crackdown: Massive Change in Labor Market Dynamics that Explains a Lot
The annual adjustments of the labor force to the new population estimates are in, and they’re revealing.
eco
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Wolf Street
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30
days ago
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases
Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note and bond balances on ice, SRF unused.
eco
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Wolf Street
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31
days ago
Companies Report Raging Inflation, Except in Wages and Rents
Double-digit increases in employee health insurance costs hold down wage increases.